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2010-05-18 16:59:27

Rapid Assessment on Infrastructure of Disruptions - Complex Event Modeling Simulation and Analysis (CEMSA)

RTSync Corp., a spin-off of the Arizona Center for Integrative Modeling and Simulation (ACIMS), is collaborating with Lockheed Martin of Sunnyvale, CA to develop a web-service oriented modeling and simulation (M&S) environment for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Sponsored by the Infrastructure and Geophysical Division (IGD) within the Science and Technology Directorate of DHS, the web-based system will enable analysts to rapidly predict the consequences of disruptive events on national critical infrastructures and resources as well as the propagating effects of these events. Eighteen critical infrastructures have been identified such as power systems, water resources, fuel supplies, transportation systems and emergency response capabilities. Disruptions to one may impact others in a cascading domino process with complex feedbacks.

Currently, in response to an incident such as a hurricane, analysts collect data from affected locations, select appropriate models from an inventory, run them on computers, and feed the results from one to others as needed. This manual process is apt to take more time than the few hours that are available to decide on action that may be needed. RAID (Rapid Assessment on Infrastructure of Disruptions) will employ fundamental modeling concepts and simulation technologies that will automate this process through a suite of web services coordinated in a service-oriented architecture. To support on-the-fly synthesis, advanced artificial intelligence (AI) planning techniques will generate complex interactive model composition plans that can be monitored during execution and adjusted to meet the timelines available for emergency response.

The project will combine M&S and AI technologies to develop new abstractions of existing national infrastructure models and capture their interdependencies. It will then use this knowledge to dynamically control model resolution and execution time while providing explanations of impact chaining that give decision makers confidence in the outputs.

RTSync and the Lockheed Advanced Technology Center will work with the analysts and developers at the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) to marshal the modeling and simulation resources that have been developed to support risk analysis and decisions for critical infrastructure and key resources (CIKR). Analyst users include those at the Risk Development and Modeling Branch (RDMB) , DHS Headquarters, DHS components, and partners in the National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP).

The grant funding the project has a potential period of performance of 5 years with over $7 million.